India is likely to see a slowdown in the number of cases “in two or two weeks, maybe within days,” according to their latest model, M Vidyasagar, chairman of the Covid-19 modeling committee, told CNN on Tuesday.
The committee, commissioned by the Indian government, consists of scientists from various universities working on data modeling techniques.
Vidyasagar said that during the first wave they perfected one model, and when they noticed an increase in cases in February, they recalculated the model using the latest data.
“We found the case to peak in early May and we feel the maximum number is 120,000 when it turns out that we have the right timing. But we haven’t received the correct maximum number of cases, ”he told CNN’s Becky Anderson.
“We underestimated the number of cases in early April. But the subsequent corrections we made to the model were just right on target, ”he said, adding that their latest forecast“ is the result that the epidemic is at its highest. And we should expect the number of cases to drop in a few weeks or two, or possibly within days. ”
Vidyasagar sent CNN’s recently updated photo of the model on April 29, showing the anticipated peak could take place in the coming days. The model shows the daily cases will drop below 200,000 cases per day by the end of the month.
His colleague Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the prestigious IIT Kanpur university’s Department of Computer Science and Engineering, who is on the board, tweeted an updated graph on May 1, in line with these predictions.
Vidyasagar goes on to explain, “Good news, if you want to call it, if you look at other second-wave countries like the United States, like the United Kingdom, while the second wave is rapidly increasing, it has too. Drop sharply So we hope something similar happens in India, and that’s what our model shows. ”
“The first wave of the epidemic was very gentle. Hence, some people in the government are forecasting a modest increase in the second wave. And our work has to say that the ascent is actually very steep, so the government has to act very quickly, ”he said.
“Unfortunately, we knew it wasn’t enough because the ferocity of the second wave surprised everyone, including us modelers,” said Vidyazagar.
The government followed the committee’s recommendations, as Vidyasagar said. They put together a “very grand plan, which will come three months later, and focus on their efforts to solve short-term problems, such as: The military hospital attempted to set up an on-site oxygen plant.
When asked about the reasons for the trend, he claimed that people were dissatisfied with crowded public practices and activities.
Vidyasagar said the message from the government was “not enough”.
In his opinion, one flaw in the messaging, he said, “is not encouraging people to get vaccinated when they are due. If we were fully vaccinated with all the people who were eligible to be vaccinated, the second wave would not be as aggressive as it seems. Yes, in that sense the government could have done more. “