Dominic Cummings, his former chief adviser, recently said the prime minister’s plans to “Having donors secretly pay for renovations is unethical, stupid, potentially illegal and almost illegal to properly disclose political donations.”
Government officials are concerned that Cummings, who left the government in November amid a public power struggle, is preparing to retaliate against him, as is the election. If this past week there were a lot of scandals that distracted the public from Johnson’s greatest success since taking office, it was the launch of a vaccine.
One of the places that could have hurt Johnson a lot is Scotland. The prime minister already knew that there was little chance that Scottish voters would choose anything but a parliamentary majority who agreed to remain independent. The only question is how much the union, including his own conservatives wanting to stay in the UK, will lose.
While it was true that Johnson did not need the Scottish vote to win the general election. But the claim for increased autonomy is extremely shameful for a man who positions himself as “Union Minister”;
For Scotland to really become independent, Johnson would have to agree to a referendum, as it took place in 2014 when Scots voted by a 10% margin to stay in the UK.
So far, Johnson has rejected a second referendum, warning the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has dominated Scotland’s politics, that the 2014 vote would be a once-in-a-generation event. However, the stricter the adherence of the SNP and the other separatists, the more problems there will be to ignore their demands.
But if Scotland had to leave the UK, there would be some complications.
“In the case of Brexit, this process is guided by the steps outlined in Article 50 of the EU treaty, there is no equivalent process in the UK constitution,” said Nicola McEwen, a territorial political professor at the University of Edinburgh.
This means that in the event of an independent vote, the UK and Scottish governments may order civil servants to frame the negotiations, time frames and agree on how the negotiations will be made.
However, as McEwen pointed out, both parties’ political leadership will have to respect that process – something that can get messy.
“Of course, agreeing in the negotiating process doesn’t mean things are easy. Relationships may be less sincere and both will have their own interests to defend in negotiations and on the broader political arena. She said.
It is likely that any negotiations, opened by the Scottish Government, will present the best case ideas for dividing shared assets by population and other practical considerations, for example, number of nuclear submarines. Much is in the waters of Scotland, which is unclear, home elsewhere.
It is unlikely that the British government would accept this, at least under Johnson. “The government is full of Brexit veterans with whom they have been hit by bigger allies. This time, ”said Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester.
Independent opponents argue that this has put Scotland at the mercy of the hostile government in Westminster, with no guarantees on fundamental questions such as which currency they will use, which assets and what institutions they will use. He can heal and will have any kind of border England.
“Independence is the wrong solution for Scotland, not just because of its inevitable economy and cost. But it’s because of the false assertion that people in Scotland are less involved with the rest of the UK than they combined with, ”said Eddie Barnes, a former director of communications for the Conservative Party. Scottish
Although this is far from the only conflict of the nationalists. But the central board of the SNP’s arguments is that it can finally join the EU again following Britain’s departure, said SNP’s Kate Forbes, Scotland. “It was taken out of the European Union and a large single market in Europe, 7 times larger than the UK, which is against our will,” she believes. Along with our abundance of resources, we can mimic the success of an independent nation of similar size like Denmark.
As the leader of the 2016 Brexit campaign and the union’s self-appointed defender, it’s hard to think of the humiliation that Johnson had to endure more than it saw Scotland leave Britain and re-enter the Union. Europe
Brexit has drawn more people into the independence movement and the SNP knows that the forced leave of Scotland has intensified Remainers north of the border.
The independence movement is no longer the only anti-establishment proletarian, as one senior SNP adviser explained. Rather, it is the new political home for many of Scotland’s wealthy voters and faces.
“In 2014, Tories told the Scots that not voting for independence is the only way to guarantee your EU citizenship. We are now a responsible global citizen party,” said an SNP advisor.
While Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP boss and her foot soldier, are smart to make a promise to return. But it was a little dreamy when they had to get Johnson’s permission to vote.
There has been widespread discussion on whether Brussels will be willing to let them in.Forbes is optimistic that the accession process will be easier for Scotland than most countries. “Been in the European Union and by all legal definitions for nearly 50 years.”
This argument is useful because it seems unlikely that even Johnson will leave Scotland desolate enough that it does not meet the criteria of EU candidates. That means it may be in a state where its institutional matches what they currently have, it will have an active democracy, it can afford to support itself economically when it joins a union with things. Other
However, it overlooks other political obstacles that could arise in Brussels, and eventually this would be a political decision.
First, the border issue will be very complex if Ireland’s post-Brexit border negotiations are something to go on and the EU may be reluctant to open up again.
The second is creating blueprints for other separatist movements across Europe.The most obvious example is the Spanish Catalonia Autonomous Region, where opposition leaders were arrested and protesters were violently attacked by Spanish police.
However, EU officials have said personally that the Brexit saga that ends in part with Britain’s return is a compelling narrative that draws people who want to draw Johnson in the eye. Some think it would be helpful for the EU to have nuclear power other than France in the bloc, as it seeks to form a consensus on a common defense policy.
So, while Sturgeon’s European dream is more complicated than some might claim. But it’s possible that the EU has enough aversion to Britain that the gathering of Johnson’s enemies could seriously damage the legacy of a man who made a career in swinging the ball, ruining it. Wash in Brussels.
All of this was apparently fictional as long as Johnson rejected the Scots’ vote. In the event that the Scottish Parliament is dominated by independent supporters after next week, it is difficult to predict whether the prime minister’s stubbornness is a broader political aid or obstruction across Britain.
“There’s still a long way to go until the next election in 2024, and without the European Union, Johnson needs a new enemy to attract his base,” Ford said. Perfect as many British voters think the Scots have benefited greatly from the union and find the complaining a little annoying. ‘
One way Ford sees this inaccurate for Johnson is to block out the demands that have resulted in frustration in a way that makes life in Scotland the enemy.
This problem could have led Johnson to be politically exposed, McEwen believed the problem would not go away.
“It is likely to stand out in the next UK general election. If the SNP wins overwhelming majority of Scotland’s seats in that election again, they could be a dominant force in the House of Commons and difficult to ignore by. Especially in situations Where they have a balance of power, ”she said.
Of course, this is some way of doing it and may not have been in front of Johnson due to the recent departure of staff working exclusively on the question. However, even members of his own government are personally concerned that the actions of Johnson, a union trying to unite after Brexit, could kick off events that eventually led Scotland to cut off Britain.