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Can California reach herd immunity before the rest of the country?



At the start of the vaccine launch in December, experts including COVID-19 Cesar R. Anthony Fosy said the United States would meet the end of the epidemic when most of the population was vaccinated and The population has immunity in the herd.

Now, some experts say the country may not have herd immunity. The story, circulated widely in the New York Times on Monday, said the violent strain and reluctance to vaccination made its target inaccessible.

But while many states across the country face a sharp rise and rejection of vaccines, California is in a good position with the lowest incidence rates in the country and the population where most of the vaccines are needed. The heavily hit Los Angeles County reported no deaths from COVID-1

9 on Sunday, the first time in 410 days the county had no such deaths. Little one

Can the Golden State – and especially the Bay Area reach herd immunity before the rest of the country?


No one knows for sure. But local experts are hopeful that California is headed toward herd immunity, or at least to the point where transmission rates will be very low soon.

“I think we’ll get there before the rest of the United States,” said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology and head of global infectious diseases and epidemiology at the University of California, San Francisco. “I think other people in the US will catch up or get to the point where the transmission will go down.”

“There is likely to be ‘Regional herd immunity’ long before there was “True ‘herd immunity’ in a national or global landscape,” said Dr. Peter Shin-Hong, professor in UCSF’s Department of Infectious Diseases of Health.

Herd immunity is where the majority of the population is immune due to a previous vaccination or illness. When possible, the transmission of disease from person to person will be reduced and the whole community will be protected, not just those who have immunity.

No one knows for sure what the criteria are, but Fauci and several other experts have predicted for months that 70% to 85% of the total population needs to be vaccinated.

Chin-Hong explained that when the Bay Area communities meet this threshold, many local restrictions will still be released and “It gives us a desire to live like that before 2020”

But as life becomes more common for people to get vaccinated when activity takes place, he said, true herd immunity. This is because of three things: the reluctance of vaccines, the continued creation of viral strains, and, most importantly, the current global lack of equality of vaccines.

“Until most of us in all countries are vaccinated, there will be too many viruses to spread that we can party like 2019,” Chin-Hong said, referring to the spread of the virus and strains through the “vaccination”. Travel around the world “Until then, it will play the hunt game.”

While California may have a dramatic drop in sicknesses, hospital admissions and deaths, nearby states, including Washington and Oregon, are meeting younger residents.

At the same time, across the Pacific Ocean, the Indian health care system is overwhelming and lack of medical oxygen. The country hit the deadliest day of the outbreak on May 2, with 3,689 deaths in India, with less than 2% of adults fully vaccinated.

In the United States, vaccination brings hope: 44% of the population received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 31% were fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the San Francisco Bay Area, these numbers are higher than in Marin County. 83% of the population aged 16 and over were given at least one dose and 62% received a series, in San Francisco found. That 72% of adults had received at least one vaccination, while 49% were fully vaccinated in Santa Clara, 70% had started vaccination and 43% had been successfully vaccinated.

Dr Monica Gandhi, professor of medicine at UCSF, said she thinks California and the Bay Area can enter herd immunity faster than “we think” and set herd’s immunity threshold at 65% to 70. %

“This is because you have to look up on the world stage to see places that have higher vaccination rates than we have and are opening up to more combinations, and see how cases and hospitalization rates of hospitalizations are going to be the same.” They fell as the vaccination rate increased, ”Gandhi said, pointing to a table with data from Israel, the UK and the United States yesterday. “In the 62% first-dose vaccination rate, Israel currently has 74 cases out of more than 9 million people, which is less than 1 per 100,000 people. In California, we currently have 1,512 cases, and in San Francisco we have 1,512 cases. GO has 17 infected, despite the ongoing testing and more openness, we have a low mortality rate from COVID-19, with 0 deaths in LA County, all of which are indications that we can get it. Immunization of the herd with increased vaccination rates “

The US Department of Health and Human Services map below provides estimates of the percentage of the population in each county who may hesitate to get vaccinated.

The US Department of Health and Human Services map below provides estimates of the percentage of the population in each county who may hesitate to get vaccinated.

US Department of Health and Human Services

On average, about 30% of Americans are reluctant to get vaccinated. But this number is lower than in California, with roughly 10% to 15% of vaccines for Golden State residents hesitant, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Studies show that people identified as Republicans are less likely to get vaccinated than Democrats, and that vaccination hesitancy in California is generally higher than in counties. Red

Rutherford hopes those who initially refused the vaccine will change their minds.

“As more discussions started about what you can and cannot do if you get vaccinated and not vaccinated, I think that will motivate people to get vaccinated,” he said. Because getting vaccinated is essential to things like flying and going to the office. ‘I don’t think I want it’ or ‘I just want to wait a minute’ … that will go away. ‘

Adolescents are another part of the puzzle in achieving herd immunity. Although transmission of the virus is low in young children who are unlikely to have access to the vaccine until 2020, teenagers can transmit the virus as well as adults and vaccination is important, experts say.

Vaccinations for that age group are coming soon as the Food and Drug Administration expects to allow Pfizer for people ages 12 to 15 by early next week, according to The New York Times.

“I think we’ll see something close to herd immunity in California this summer if teenagers are vaccinated,” Rutherford said. “The Bay Area could see herd immunity before California”


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