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Case increase But still below the peak on May 7.



Health workers wearing personal protective equipment join the banquet hall, temporarily transformed into a COVID-19 care center in New Delhi on May 7, 2021.

Prakash Singh | AFP | Getty Images

India’s total number of COVID-19 cases accounts for more than 24 million as the country grapples with a second wave of infections affecting its healthcare system.

Government data released Friday showed 343,1

44 new cases were reported over a 24-hour period of at least 4,000 deaths, the third consecutive day of 4,000 official deaths. Go up

There were still fewer than the 414,188 daily cases reported on May 7, but the pressure had not eased from the hospital. The report also suggested the virus was spreading out in rural India, where experts said the health care system was not designed to handle the incident.

A professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur said on Friday that daily cases in India could peak.

“According to our model, the number of new cases coming every day has crossed its peak and we’re going down,” said Manindra Agrawal, a professor in the computer science and engineering department of CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia”. With the movement of India It’s also very close to the top, and it could happen in the coming days, after which things tend to improve.

Agrawal co-authored a mathematical model for an outbreak called SUTRA (Weak, Undetectable, Tested (Positive) and Deleted) with two scientists to predict the spread of the coronavirus.

Previously, models predicted India’s second wave peaked by the third week of April and daily cases were likely to be around 100,000.April was India’s worst month, with cases reported. Officially nearly 7 million, while more than 48,000 deaths, experts say the actual number is likely much higher.

The scientists behind SUTRA said the model defect was due to the altered nature of the Covid-19 virus.

For his part, Agrawal told CNBC that the SUTRA model had predicted a second wave to have similar intensity to the first and peak at the end of April.

“This is the feedback we give to the government,” he said, adding. “As we get the place or time that is more or less suitable than the peak. But we don’t get the right concentration. ”

“No one really could measure the intensity of the waves, and that surprised us all,” added Agrawal.

Indian officials are eyeing a potential third wave as the government aims to develop a major vaccination program by increasing vaccine production.

Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government of India K. VijayRaghavan This month said the third wave is “It is inevitable as the virus circulates at a higher level.”


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