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Could Michigan’s COVID give rise to the nation’s “fourth wave”?

If you look at the New York Times’ list of metro areas where COVID is at its worst, you will find that 13 of the 20 most affected cities are in Michigan, including Jackson, Detroit, and Flint. Anthony Fauci doesn’t believe an outbreak like Michigan could become the “fourth wave” of COVID nationwide. But Abdul El Zayed, who is in the midst of these local outbreaks, sees what is happening now a little differently.El-Sayed is a lifelong Michigander and an epidemiologist in charge of the Detroit Department of Health. A few years ago He said Michigan proves that unless our vaccination plans truly increase, we are in danger of losing a species with this coronavirus. Of course, vaccines can reduce the spread of the disease. But if only into everyone̵

7;s bosom NowOn Wednesday’s episode of What Next, I spoke to El-Sayed about a weakness in our distribution plan, how different strains increase the stakes in our national race to get vaccinated and progress. Of us in an anti-virus, which seems to have stalled? Other areas can be tolerated. BackOur conversations have been edited and condensed for clarity.

Abdul El Zayed: I’m not going to lie: in early March, I felt great about everything I heard and seen. Spring is coming We had a really good couple of days. When things actually start to subside and then hit the top, that’s when my feelings of optimism begin to fade a bit. Michigan is “vertical” with new patients. As you begin to get vertical, you are talking about a large number of cases per person. And that exponential growth is where we are in the state of

Mary Harris: I wonder if you see Michigan as a warning to the rest of the country.

I want to be wrong about it. I want the future to look like everyone has learned their lesson. But I’m looking at it now, and I think everyone infected now is an opportunity for a variable to pick out new evolutionary traits that could lead to avoiding our immune response, be it. Naturally or Vaccine mediator

So it might get worse

I don’t want to say that But there is a theoretical possibility that it might get worse.

Let’s look at what the numbers are and what we see. My understanding is that Michigan is leading other states in terms of new cases. Are these cases concentrated in specific areas or are they really everywhere?

The outbreak began in Michigan’s “thumb” for people familiar with Michigan’s geography. But you still have more patients in other communities, and now people are coming together and doing things they didn’t do last year during this time. So it spread throughout the state. The other day we broke 10,000 cases, the day before we released about 8,500.

My feeling is that because some people have been vaccinated. But with these coronavirus strains, the increased caseload looks a little different from what we’ve seen before. Do we have a good understanding of what is causing the blockade?

You have a more contagious and virulent form of the virus. That’s what B.1.1.7 is. It transmits faster and makes you sick. Then you open up again, bringing people together in this context. If those people were not vaccinated, all you have to run into is a poisonous beer, where you have a more virulent and highly contagious virus among people mixed at a higher rate than before. In the past

And these people may feel safe because younger people aren’t getting sick in the first place.

That’s right, that’s one of the shocking parts of the story: If you look at the increase in hospitalizations, it is among young people. That may be due to the fact that B.1.1.7 is more virulent than the initial coronavirus, so we are in a situation where those who feel safe, optimistic, caused by the headlines that the vaccine is on its way. It is therefore more risky by the context of the higher risk version of the virus.

“We are in a situation where those who feel safe are taking greater risk of the consequences in the context of a more vulnerable version of the virus.”

– Abdul El Zayed

My understanding is that Michigan is average in terms of vaccination launches. But there are these gaps in terms of who can reach it.

I am the health commander of Detroit, the largest black city in America and the poorest. Those two things were no coincidence. I walked into a department with five city employees and 85 contractors in the back of the building as the city of Detroit decided to lay off debt to the health department. There is no department that has been working for years. My job is to rebuild it. Can you imagine where we are now? The city of Detroit is battling the worst epidemic in more than a century, with a five-year-old health agency in charge of the choices we make on the way. That we allocate the whole group Different resources It’s not just health care But also those with access to decent and stable housing, access to water, good school access, and access to the work accompanying that education. Another part of your experience with the healthcare system is that you are constantly being insulted because we in society do not provide universal health care to people. You could be someone who has health insurance through Medicaid, which sets a much lower rate of reimbursement, and doctors and hospitals view you as a charity case, so they look down on you because our system genuinely discriminates against you and says. Your body is not worth providing health care, that is the experience of many people.

There are other problems, not just accessibility, that people who don’t want to get vaccinated in Michigan. Who would say they are going to pass by this time?

Michigan is almost a microcosm of the United States, we have large urban communities, we have large suburban communities, we have large rural communities. You have two big groups of hesitation. The first was a conservative white man in rural Michigan and the second was a black whose reluctance arose from a distrust of their own experience with the medical system. It’s not a reluctance that works for everyone, and I think we have to think about dealing with it in a different way.

Do you see targeted campaigns that you want to reach these groups of people?

I think there is a real collective push to take this action. I didn’t think it was enough and I didn’t think it was imaginative enough. But I think it’s nice to see the leaders of the church community get involved in the cause, and I think they have met federal and state leadership groups who want to empower them. And make sure they have the resources This hesitation is needed. But I think it’s more of a secondary target than a focus.

Do you think that is a mistake or not?

Oh absolutely Here’s the thing: We’ll get to a point next month where the vaccine volumes are higher than the vaccine requirements. Clearly solving the supply problem is the prime target. But the thing about demand is that it takes more time.

More trust is required

Straight and takes time It takes time at the level of a lengthy and consistent conversation. If you’re looking at an institution that you don’t trust and suddenly they think, “We really want you to get this vaccine, and then we’ll go back to it.” That’s not a trust building exercise. Long-term investment must be used together. And we don’t have that much time.

The important thing about leadership is what transmits. Should More than doing it right When you signal that we are now opening again, all you can tell is to have fun, enjoy the new opening, and send the wrong signal. It’s not just an action that needs to be performed. But it is also a message that must be passed on to those actions about the fact that this is serious.

You really have the elegant idea that states should tie the new turn to local vaccination rates. The mayor wanted to open the city for a number of reasons. They want that tax base back. They want their city to feel “normal” again, if everyone’s understanding of vaccination will help. At least it’s a start, although vaccinations can’t be everything. Has anyone taken this idea seriously?

I don’t know. I hope they are because I think one of the things we need right now is motivation to work. I’m actually quite concerned that the freedom that should come with a sufficiently high rate of vaccination. Then arrived without The vaccination rate; It’s like that just because a vaccine exists in theory, we act like everyone is vaccinated, and the two are not the same. I think what we have to say, “Look, this is useful for all of us,” not just saying I’m protected and that I can do things safely, but say, “I want to go to a local restaurant. Really. That’s my favorite place. I really want to go back to exercise. I really want to go to the concert. This is what we have to do to get there. Let’s do that. “

Biden said he hopes the 4th of July looks like normal, where we can get together in a small group and celebrate outdoors. I wonder what happened in Michigan, does it really change your mind about that idea?

The distance between now and July is really long. Many things can go right if we make the right decisions so that we can get back on track. But I’m also worried about what other states will be. As I said, Michigan is not the only place with this kind of dynamics. It’s just the place where it first happened. If we start to see these dynamics take place in a different state a few weeks from now, a month from now, it could break that timeline. It’s important to remember that the more we do now to prevent such things from happening, the closer we are to the highest “normal” we all want to reach. It’s about the choices we make. Viruses don’t have a mind of their own. It follows the path we created for it. And our job is to close those paths down

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