Home / World / Disputes over the Nile project could lead to military conflicts.

Disputes over the Nile project could lead to military conflicts.



Talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan about the conflicting embankment in Addis Ababa’s Nile have come under growing political fears that the crisis could turn into a military conflict.

The latest round of talks that ended this week failed to reach a deal.

Seleshibekele, Ethiopian Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy, said on Wednesday that his country will continue to fill the dam’s massive reservoir during the upcoming rainy season, which usually starts in June. July

“As the construction goes on, the reclamation takes place,” Bekele said. “We are not deviating from that.”

That sparked an angry response from neighboring Sudan, where the irrigation minister warned his country was ready to take a stand on the dispute.

“For Sudan, all options are possible, including sending back. [the matter] Towards the UN Security Council and Hardened Policy … (If) Ethiopia Begins Second Refilling (of the Dam) Without Agreement. Yasser Abbas told reporters.

Mohamed Mustafa, a Sudanese freelance journalist, told The Media Line the failure of the three countries to reach a deal was because all sides were skeptical of each other.

“The main point of the conflict is a binding legal agreement. Ethiopia fears it will limit future water projects, while Sudan and Egypt insist on signing a”

; agreement “, Mustafa said. He added that another important issue was “the timing of the dams’ filling and how to use them during the drought.”

Egyptian fears that the dam would endanger the river’s water share prompted President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to issue a stern warning to Ethiopia last week, saying that parts of the Nile were “ strong. In his country “Unable to touch”

William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia’s The International Crisis Group told The Media Line that the Egyptians and Sudanese “The preliminary agreement on how to cooperate in a second containment will lessen the increased diplomatic tensions we are seeing now and reduce the possibility of a second incident. Damage Sudan as a result of the process “

Sisi’s expressions gave rise to speculation that a military confrontation was imminent.

Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, told The Media Line that the increased rhetoric is for domestic consumption.

“Most of the expressions we see around the dam from all sides are focused on the internal audience rather than the others. For Ethiopia and Egypt in particular, these issues have sparked a deep nationalistic feeling and both leaders are using the issue. To bolster His own political position, ”he said.

Hudson added that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiyahmed was under tremendous internal pressure, including revolutions from many regions within the country, including the June national elections, and that this played a role in the stance of the he

Davison said the military confrontation would not produce the best results for downstream countries Egypt and Sudan.

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“The best way for Egypt and Sudan to secure the sustainably essential water supply is through formal cooperation with Ethiopia. Air strikes could cause the Grand Ethiopian dam to build a Renaissance. Late completion But it is very damaging and risky and will not change the hydrological situation. Moreover, Ethiopia would later be reluctant to cooperate with Egypt, so it is unclear what Egypt will be, ”he said.

Martin Plaut, visiting a senior friend at the King’s College Department of War Studies in London, told The Media Line that right now “it’s a political issue,” but Plaut warned of where these countries are headed, saying. “I am afraid that the end of the military problem”

Plaut, who has been a journalist for decades reporting on the Horn of Africa and Southern Africa as a journalist, said Sisi’s repetition of a potential military attack could put herself in a situation.

“Right now he is in a situation where he has nothing but a lot of threats and, forthright, now we have to see if he is going to follow through or no one has to take action. Something will happen if you threaten. And they’re empty, you seem weak, ”he said.

Ethiopia began construction of the $ 4.6 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance (GERD) Dam in 2011. When completed, it will be the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and the seventh largest in the world. Large with a capacity of 74 billion cubic meters

In his strongest statement to date, Sisi warned that if Ethiopia began a second reservoir filling this summer, the region would face. “Unthinkable insecurity”

“Nobody took a drop of water from Egypt, and who wanted to try it, let him try it,” Cixi said. “Nobody thought it would be far from our capabilities.”

Mustafa believes that Sisi’s latest war talks are meant to be “A threatening message to Ethiopia”

“The options for war are not yet on the table and pose a lot of risks. Perhaps the next step will require the United Nations Security Council,” Mustafa said.

Egypt and Sudan have called on the US, UN and EU to mediate beyond the African Union (AU), which supports talks this week. But Ethiopia strongly opposed international interference and said AU mediation was sufficient.

“They believe they take a stronger negotiating stand with AU in their leadership position as the AU headquarters host. Ethiopia has a strong influence on AU and believe they will be treated more fairly within the country. Under AU mediation, ”said Hudson, internal conflicts in Ethiopia influenced the decision.

“Due to the government action in Tigrey, we have seen the US, EU and the United Nations take such a tough stance against Abey that he threatened him with sanctions,” he said.

The government in Addis Ababa has branded the Tigray People’s Liberation Coalition (TPLF), the dominant party in Tigrey, the It started a military crackdown in the group last November, which some people call ethnic cleansing.

With news of the atrocities by federal forces, Addis Ababa Hudson said Abiy suspected the international community might “Difficulty separating these issues” forced him to agree to a compromise on the dam, which would affect his chances in the June election.

Egypt is concerned that when the dam is fully operational, it cuts Cairo’s waters supply, which meets about 97 percent of its water needs.Last year, Sudan said the water filling process had caused water shortages, including in the capital Khartoum.

Ethiopia says the energy produced by GERD will be vital to the development needs of 110 million people.

But Sudan’s Foreign Minister Mariam Al Saadik Al-Mahdi told reporters on Tuesday that Addis Ababa “It directly threatens the people of the Nile and Sudan waters”

Khartoum and Cairo claim massive reservoirs are a real threat.

“We are talking about the spirituality of the 250 million people living in three countries and their interests,” said al-Mahdi.

Davison warned that if countries did not reach an agreement that would ease everyone’s concerns, the outcome would be disastrous.

“Dams are a risk for downstream countries without cooperation. But without it, there is no reason the dams pose significant harm, so the failure of all parties to make the concessions necessary to achieve a compromise increases the project risk, ”he said.

More talks are scheduled later this month.




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