BRUSSEL – In Vienna on Tuesday, the signing of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal will come up with what appears to be a simple task. They want to restore compliance with Iran’s tightly controlled agreements on nuclear enhancement to ensure that nuclear weapons cannot be built in return for the repeal of the economic sanctions.
Both Iran and the United States insisted they wanted to return to the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, but nothing about a simple meeting.
President Donald J. Trump Trump pulled the US out of the deal in May 2018, calling it “the worst deal ever negotiated. ‘And revitalize and escalate harsh economic sanctions on Iran by trying to force negotiations.
Iran has retaliated in part by strengthening uranium significantly, exceeding the limits of the deal, building more advanced centrifuges and taking more aggressively supporting Middle Eastern allies such as the Hezbollah Hamas troop. Shia in Iraq and the government of Bashar al-Assad.
So going back to a deal six years ago would be more difficult than many people would have comprehended.
What is it said about?
Vienna’s talks were aimed at creating a roadmap for matching back-ups of both Iran and the United States to comply with the 2015 deal, at risk of collapse as Trump denied any involvement with Iran. American
The deal is the result of years of negotiations with Iran. Under the chairmanship of the European Union, Britain, France and Germany made the first domination of Iran, joined by other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: Russia, China and the United States.
But it was not yet time for the United States to begin secret talks with Iran under President Barack Obama and agree that Iran could strengthen uranium, even if it was under protection, advances were made. Still, the deal has been widely criticized as too weak by many in Congress and by Israel, which sees Iran having access to nuclear weapons, an ambition Iran has always denied as a serious threat. Exist
Europeans tried to keep the deal. But it proved unable to provide an economic benefit to Iran after Trump restored American sanctions, which were lifted under the terms of the deal. America’s sanctions, by virtue of the dollar and the American banking system, have prevented Europe and other companies from doing business with Iran, and Trump has stepped up the pressure by adding a number of other sanctions.
Iran has responded in different ways, including attacks on American cargo and allies in Iraq. But more important is to initiate higher levels of uranium enrichment and with centrifuges that are banned under the deal. The estimated time that Iran will need to produce enough enriched uranium to produce nuclear weapons has been reduced year-on-year, something the deal wants to maintain, with only a few months left. Iran is also producing the uranium metal needed for warheads, which has been banned under the deal and has strongly supported its allies in the Middle East, including many Westerners considered terrorist groups.
In further pressures, Iran narrowly interpreted the deal’s review requirements and declined to answer questions from the International Atomic Energy Agency about radioactive particles that investigators found in areas that Tehran had never declared to be part of. Iran’s nuclear program agreed in late February to keep records on the monitoring equipment for three months. But it would not grant the IAEA access without lifting the economic sanctions at the time.Iran said the data would be wiped out, which would darken the world about a significant portion of the nuclear program.
Iran insists it can return to the deal very quickly. But wants the US to take action first, the Biden administration said it wants Iran to go first.
What are the obstacles?
Reliability is one of the big problems. Iran’s regime was formed by a revolution more than four decades ago that replaced the American-backed Shah of Iran with a complex government overseen by priests and leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. maximum Ayatollah reluctantly agrees to a 2015 deal with America’s “great Satan” after Trump withdrew.
Trump has also imposed several economic sanctions on Iran, in addition to the previous agreement which was lifted by an attempt to “Highest pressure” to force Iran to negotiate more stringent terms Iranian officials now say as many as 1,600 American sanctions must be lifted, about half of them being forced by Trump. Some are aimed at terrorism and human rights violations, not nuclear issues. Lifting some of them will create conflict in Congress.
Many in Washington, let alone Israel and Europe, still do not believe Iran’s assertion that it has never pursued nuclear weapons and will never do so.
The restoration of a more complex agreement is a sentence. “Sunset”, or a time limit, which will allow Iran to carry out some nuclear enrichment activities, the Biden administration wants further negotiations with Iran to extend it, as well as restrict Iran’s missile programs and other activities.
Iran said it wanted the United States to return to the rest of the deal, including lifting sanctions before returning. So far it has refused any further talks.
Even under the Islamic regime, Iran has politics too. There is a presidential election in June by a candidate approved by the clergy. Current President Hassan Rouhani, who could no longer hold office, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif are considered moderately moderate and negotiated a 2015 nuclear deal, but powerful Iranian forces oppose the deal, including armed forces. Guard the Islamic Revolution The moderators hope the rapid progress in lifting the economic sanctions will help them in the presidential election. Hardline is expected to oppose any urgent deal in Vienna that could benefit the moderators.
Iran has been under heavy Trump sanctions for three years and has survived popular resentment and even protests, and hardists will argue that the next six months are unlikely to matter.
How will the negotiations be structured?
The senior diplomats’ meeting is the official meeting of the Joint Commission of the Agreement, which is called by the European Union as chair. As the United States leaves the deal, its representatives will not be in the room but nearby, diplomats from Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran will meet with the EU president and begin to discuss ways to revive the deal.
Iran has refused to meet face-to-face with American diplomats. So the Europeans suggested that they would meet the American with the offer, or that the Iranians would leave the room before the Americans entered. This indirect discussion process can take time.
But European diplomats said that after a few days the work would be left in Vienna to a working group on complex political and technical issues. If a rough deal can be reached on a synchronized return to compliance, the expectation is that Iranian and US officials will meet together to finalize the details.
What are my chances of success?
Negotiations could take a long time, and some in Washington hope at least for a principled deal in the coming months that will tie up the new Iranian government following the June election.
But some European diplomats feared that too much time would have passed and the deal was effectively ended and would essentially serve as a reference point for what could be a fundamental renewal.
So the timeline is not as clear as the chances of success.