Bucks vs. Heat Odds
|Money Line||-195 / +165|
|time||Saturday 1:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet|
The Heat host the Bucks on Saturday afternoon, while the Bucks look to sweep revenge after the Heat beat them in a bubble last season.
After defending their home court in an overtime win and blowout, the Bucks again dominated the Heat in a 113-84 road win in Game 3 on Thursday.
After being backed by 1.5 points in Game 3, Coins was the 4.5-point favorite Friday night heading into Game 4.
Bucks dominate the perimeter battle.
Injured striker Donte DiVincenzo (foot) will miss the remainder of the playoffs after picking up an injury in Game 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo. (left groin pain) Possible
Should the Bucks cover up again as the favorites on the road, they will have to force players other than Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to beat them while putting pressure on the Heat’s below-average defenders to stop.
The Bucks stormed into the Heat’s defense with a massive size. Milwaukee also forced Heat’s defensive line to choose whether to pivot and prevent staring at the rims or abandon their open 3-point attempt, while Heat were able to evade the smaller but strong Jae Crowder who defended it. Antetokounmpo in the playoffs last year Trevor Ariza was clearly not strong enough to sustain herself.
The Heat have a possible option with Adebayo defending Antetokounmpo. But this creates problems for defending big Brook Lopez, as Heat will either cause a huge mismatch or have to play big like Dewayne Dedmon alongside Adebayo. They opted not to do so in the regular season due to spacing issues in the regular season. offense
The Bucks shooter has improved a lot from last season. They took advantage of the Heat’s poor off-ball defenders Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro. Milwaukee gunners Bryn Forbes, Pat Connaughton, PJ Tucker and Khris Middleton made the most of their open looks.
Milwaukee’s increased shooting depth is crucial to the Heat’s defense, which has resulted in the fewest points scored in the regular season. Changing Eric Bledsoe’s poor shot together with these players getting more chances made a huge difference as Heat’s shot retreated.
Miami down to last chance
Miami desperately needs snipers to step up to continue the series. This will allow Butler and Adebayo to find a more open look up close. with a defensive line of Bucks that limit shots in color
The Heat defeated the Bucks last season with enough shots against players like Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, and Butler stepping up as gunners. The Bucks will force the Heat to defeat their drop-plan defenses as they Pack the colors and force players like Butler and Adebayo to make jumpers instead of going into the lane where they normally damage most of them. Butler scored more than 40% of his 3-point shooting against the Bucks in the playoffs last year. But he is only 24.5% in the regular season and expecting him to shoot at the periphery is a losing strategy.
Adding Antetokounmpo to Butler is an effective way to limit his appearance near the rims. And the Greek Freak’s stunning length worries Butler as a pick-and-roll dealer. The Crowder is also a much better screener and a 3-point shooter (more upset than the Bucks in the bubble, more than a few). 40%) more than Ariza, which hurts Butler’s ability to paint due to less spacing and less separation when Butler is. Pick and Roll Ball Handler
The Bucks dared the Heat’s firing squad to beat them, and they weren’t good enough. Miami ranks last among the playoff teams with just 38% of field shots. The Heat’s problem, requiring players like Nunn, Herro, Dragic and Duncan Robinson to shoot, is that the Bucks have longer and stronger players. which can take advantage of them in the support
The Heat needs their marksmanship. (Aside from a professional shooter like Robinson, who should shoot as much as possible) to do a superior job to compensate for the weaknesses in their defensive lines in the perimeter.
This weakness was why the Heat traded to Kelly Olynyk, whose size and pick-and-pop presence they sorely missed in the race for Victor Oladipo. This leaves the Heat team with many possible options for high-level perimeter defenses. It also put pressure on Rimgun Butler and Adebayo.
With the Heat leaning against the wall, expect them to score their best for the Bucks at home and compete in the first half. Because this team will not fall without a fight.
Heat missed too many shots in Game 3 early in the game as they dug an impenetrable hole on their own. But I expected their shots to decline to average in Game 4. However, Heat’s shots had to be well above average to compensate too much for them. Major protection flaws
The Bucks have the advantage of a handful of matches that the Heat can’t fix with their current roster, and I’d expect the Bucks to cover as a 4.5-point favorite as long as Antetokounmpo is running.
select: Coins -4.5 (up to -6)