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Hurricane season is expected to be exaggerated.

The CSU calls for 17 hurricanes, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), each of which is higher than the average of 12 seasonally-named storms. Ball and 3 major hurricanes

However, the seasonal averages are being adjusted, according to Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

“We will have those new averages into the season, in fact in the coming weeks we will release that information,” Graham said.

CSU is one of several educational institutions, government agencies, and private weather companies that provide seasonal estimates.

The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is not expected until the end of May. But there is also a consensus that the Atlantic is headed into another moving season.

Factors that increase hurricane activity

It is extremely warm across the eastern Atlantic, with ocean surface temperatures 1-3 ° C above normal in early April.

“The main reason why we are above average is the low likelihood of major El Niño events and relative warmth in the tropics (Atlantic), but especially in the subtropical eastern Atlantic,” said Phil. Klotzbach, a researcher at CSU, said.

Sea surface temperatures are one of the ingredients necessary to drive hurricanes, so it makes sense to have a correlation between them and the seasons in motion.

Another important factor is the El Niño, or the lack of it. With El Niño it reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear – changes in wind speed and direction that prevent hurricanes from forming.

Most dynamic and statistical models currently indicate El Niño is less likely to develop between August and October.
“El Nino’s odds from NOAA are currently relatively low for August-October (10%),” according to Klotzbach.

Average conditions, or even La Niña conditions, create a favorable environment for the development of tropical storms. While we are issuing an active La Niña pattern according to NOAA, it’s not all over yet.

So at this moment, El Niño’s calm effects on Atlantic hurricane season seem unlikely in 2021.

A change in hurricane season is coming.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season ended with a total of 30 known storms, the most in any year on record. People along the coast from Texas to Maine were affected by at least one named storm that season. But the post-season led to some major changes, including the cancellation of three storm names, as well as the full list of backups.
The World Meteorological Organization’s Hurricane Committee held an annual meeting last month to discuss past hurricane seasons and improve operational plans.
The Greek alphabet will no longer be used to name tropical storms.

Before 2021, if the hurricane season uses all the names in a predetermined alphabetical list, the next plan is to use the Greek alphabet.

“The Greek alphabet will not be used in the future as it creates distraction from communication, warnings, hazards and storms and can be confusing,” the WMO announced in March.

It was decided to use a separate list of contacts as a backup.

The Greek alphabet is replaced by an optional list, using the same rules as the Atlantic Main Hurricane Season Name List – A-Z List, but excluding the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z – for in which case And when the initial list is over

This will allow the supplementary contacts to be more easily released and replaced when needed.

Preparation for the hurricane has begun.

Climate, about 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes make landfall in the United States. However, you don’t need all 17 forecast storms to make landfall in the United States to make this an impact season.

“It doesn’t matter if there are 30 storms or one … if it affects you, it’s a busy season,” Graham said.

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is starting to make arrangements for this year’s season. This year, the center will be releasing their Atlantic products from May 15 as opposed to June 1 to better serve communities affected by the tropical system early in the season.

Seven of the past 10 years have seen tropical systems form before the start of the official hurricane season, June 1.

In the off-season, the NHC also improved storm wave modeling.

“We have a new storm wave model that we’re really excited about,” Graham said. “I think it will improve our ability to get data for storm evacuation.

This is very important, as Graham pointed out that in the past, storm surge was the most dangerous part of the tropical system. Additionally, storm surge forecasts are often the main driver for coastal evacuation plans.

“The best part, in some cases where we are truly confident, it will take us 48 hours to retrieve the data, which we do now we will extend to 60 hours,” Graham said. Have decision-making power to help them make difficult decisions about whether to immigrate or not. ”

The NHC’s official hurricane forecast will be released in May and “It looks like we tend to be above the mean again,” Graham said.

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