The CSU calls for 17 hurricanes, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), each of which is higher than the average of 12 seasonally-named storms. Ball and 3 major hurricanes
However, the seasonal averages are being adjusted, according to Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
“We will have those new averages into the season, in fact in the coming weeks we will release that information,” Graham said.
CSU is one of several educational institutions, government agencies, and private weather companies that provide seasonal estimates.
The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is not expected until the end of May. But there is also a consensus that the Atlantic is headed into another moving season.
Factors that increase hurricane activity
It is extremely warm across the eastern Atlantic, with ocean surface temperatures 1-3 ° C above normal in early April.
“The main reason why we are above average is the low likelihood of major El Niño events and relative warmth in the tropics (Atlantic), but especially in the subtropical eastern Atlantic,” said Phil. Klotzbach, a researcher at CSU, said.
Sea surface temperatures are one of the ingredients necessary to drive hurricanes, so it makes sense to have a correlation between them and the seasons in motion.
Another important factor is the El Niño, or the lack of it. With El Niño it reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear – changes in wind speed and direction that prevent hurricanes from forming.
Average conditions, or even La Niña conditions, create a favorable environment for the development of tropical storms. While we are issuing an active La Niña pattern according to NOAA, it’s not all over yet.
So at this moment, El Niño’s calm effects on Atlantic hurricane season seem unlikely in 2021.
A change in hurricane season is coming.
Before 2021, if the hurricane season uses all the names in a predetermined alphabetical list, the next plan is to use the Greek alphabet.
“The Greek alphabet will not be used in the future as it creates distraction from communication, warnings, hazards and storms and can be confusing,” the WMO announced in March.
It was decided to use a separate list of contacts as a backup.
The Greek alphabet is replaced by an optional list, using the same rules as the Atlantic Main Hurricane Season Name List – A-Z List, but excluding the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z – for in which case And when the initial list is over
This will allow the supplementary contacts to be more easily released and replaced when needed.
Preparation for the hurricane has begun.
“It doesn’t matter if there are 30 storms or one … if it affects you, it’s a busy season,” Graham said.
Seven of the past 10 years have seen tropical systems form before the start of the official hurricane season, June 1.
“We have a new storm wave model that we’re really excited about,” Graham said. “I think it will improve our ability to get data for storm evacuation.
This is very important, as Graham pointed out that in the past, storm surge was the most dangerous part of the tropical system. Additionally, storm surge forecasts are often the main driver for coastal evacuation plans.
“The best part, in some cases where we are truly confident, it will take us 48 hours to retrieve the data, which we do now we will extend to 60 hours,” Graham said. Have decision-making power to help them make difficult decisions about whether to immigrate or not. ”
The NHC’s official hurricane forecast will be released in May and “It looks like we tend to be above the mean again,” Graham said.