Health workers keep records of the broom testing of passengers who got off their cars at a LIT train station in Mumbai.
MUMBAI: Mathematical models analyzing the causes of the second coronavirus in the city and its future trends show that an increasing graph of COVID deaths will peak in the first week of May. The case of COVID peaked a few weeks before May 1in Mumbai.
Analysis of vaccination trends, a paper presented by a team of scientists at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), Mumbai. Specify that in a matching situation. Mumbai Immunization Driving Force (Vaccination according to the age of 15 to 20 hundred thousand new people per month, 75% efficacy) Mortality from COVID will drop to near January and February by June 1.
If the vaccination continues without problems and without the threat of the new variant, Mumbai may be in a position to open the school by July 1 or shortly after. The further the forecast is, the more errors are made. It’s close to July, so it’s a good time to conduct this evaluation, ”said TIFR Dean, said team leader Dr Sandeep Juneja.
The second wave of COVIDs in a row, hitting 2.3 lakh in Mumbai, and 1,479 people died in April alone. On May 1, the city had 90 deaths, a record that There was only one death toll this year, the highest ever in an outbreak, was 120 on 24 June 2020.
The mathematical models suggest that different SARS-CoV-2 viruses lead to a second wave and that local rail services play a role in the spread, the TIFR team said, that variables may be circulating in Mumbai. And other large districts in Maharashtra in February when the city reopened and local trains started running at near normal frequencies. As the crowds on roads and trains increased, the variant found an environment conducive to spreading and creating a ferocious second wave.
The document says, “Opening an economy at any time before or after February will lead to variable growth. (Because it is unlikely that a large population will be vaccinated anytime soon) and that is why it is important to recommend it. For a violent second wave, according to our computer experiments, “local trains certainly play a key role in accelerating the spread.”
Most of the factors blamed for the second wave, such as inappropriate behavior with COVID, increased infection and increasing viral mortality or the combination itself, did not work well in the scientists say. Second wave pattern matching
“We found that the most likely explanation was the appearance of a very small number of infectious variants on February 1, which grew rapidly thereafter and became the dominant species by mid-March. The situation in which the variant was 2 to 2.5 times more infectious than the dominant strains last year and accounted for 2.5% of the population infected as of February 1 seemed to match the data, ”the document said. Absolutely, in the model parameters, the figures above may be far from the truth. However, the observation that Mumbai has a highly infectious and large number of strains in March is likely true.
While second wave patterns in other districts such as Pune, Thanachik and Nagpur, follow the Mumbai pattern closely, doctors say there may be a similar delay for Maharashtra. Soon