The number of new COVID-19 cases has dropped in Oregon since late last year. But the state is experiencing a change in who tested the positive. Since January, the share of new cases among Oregon residents ages 10 to 19 has increased by about 50%, while the proportion of people aged 20 to 50 has decreased, according to analysis by The Lund Report.
The change appears to be part of a national trend. Nationwide weekly data collected by the American Academy of Pediatrics show that the percentage of new pediatric cases increased roughly the same. The hospital admissions data has the same pattern: The number of COVID hospitalizations under the age of 19 has almost doubled since January.
Still, adults play an important role in hospitalization, reports of 48 states and Washington, D.C. to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, indicate that there is a suspected or confirmed hospitalization. Widgets among more than 2.3 million adults from Nov. 1 through Saturday. That compares with the hospitalization among 81,300 children.
Unlike older adults who have the highest risk of death and severe COVID disease, most children have mild symptoms, typically with a cough, fever, headache, and a runny nose. In addition, two Oregon residents younger than 20 died.In contrast, about 490 died between 50 and 69, and more than 1,850 died among those aged 70 and over. go
The changing demographic cases came at an awkward time for policymakers to reopen schools.The limited data on variable severity in children made it difficult to classify as contributing factors. There was no national dataset of school attendance policies and useful indicators of children’s behavior, leaving researchers lacking in tools.
But the same situation is hopeful: This early evidence suggests vaccines are working and children need less hospitalization. But the elderly are less sick A study of nearly 600,000 Israeli vaccines published in the New England Journal of Medicine found that in the first few weeks after the first vaccination, severe COVID cases fell faster than their overall infection.
In addition, Israel, which has the highest per capita vaccination rate in the world, saw a sharp increase in the number of cases among Israeli youths, as reported last month in the British Medical Journal. The journal also reports that 60% of cases in villages in northern Italy are found in This trend has raised concern among Italian healthcare professionals.
The trend is less evident in the United States, in part because of data collection issues that stem from the Trump administration.
But when The Lund Report shared their analysis with researchers, they said it might be possible that the vaccine had an impact.
“It makes sense,” said Dr. Sean O’Leary, vice chair of the Infectious Diseases Committee of the American Academy of Pediatrics. “We don’t have hard data to say that’s what’s going on. But it makes sense that we may see some changes in demographics ”as a result of the mass vaccinations, he said.“ We know vaccines work. ”
The rate of COVID virus infection in children “Continued increases through outbreaks, which could represent a real increase in infected children compared to older populations, not that the virus is becoming more severe in children,” O’Leary said. Rose last spring And the summer may represent an increased testing capacity. The United States has had some success in reducing this spread among older adults, he added.
In Oregon, the last state in the country to vaccinate older people living in the community, health officials have given at least one dose to more than 540,000 people 65 and older, according to the Oregon Health Authority. 70% of that population, according to estimates by the Portland State University Center for Population Research.
But getting vaccinated for people who already have metabolic syndrome may have less of an impact on the overall virus reduction than vaccinating people at greatest risk, such as essential workers. The number of cases dropped was the greatest among those aged 20 to 50, including the majority of those who had been previously vaccinated in Oregon, including medical staff and teachers.
Another factor to consider is the spread of the species – from the UK, South Africa and Brazil, and factors that occur in the United States.
“I don’t know if there is any strong evidence to suggest that these strains are more virulent in children than those that are transmitted in the United States, or that they are disproportionately higher in childhood infections than adults. With the previous species, ”O’Leary said.
With so many competitive factors, the relative weight of each piece is difficult to untangle. But some of the factors most frequently cited for increased cases among younger people – the duration of household diffusion, test availability and student roles seem unlikely to fully explain all trends.
Information from the college campus.
Chunhuei Chi, an international health professor at Oregon State University and director of the Center for Global Health, said student cases were a clear supporting factor.OSU saw a significant increase in COVID cases on the Corvallis campus in February, although the numbers fell in In the past few weeks
Chi said OSU was testing all students living in dormitories every week, noting that testing more frequently tended to produce more asymptomatic cases that could slip under the radar, Chi said he had spoken. With students multiple times infected with COVID and said, mild cases of COVID could lead to much shorter natural resistance (O’Leary of the American Academy of Pediatrics said this was possible. But not explicitly accepted by research)
The OSU approach isn’t the only way colleges face a COVID crisis.Counting COVID cases at most Portland State University follows urban trends. Said Mark Bajrek, director of the university’s health services. The tests were voluntary and the test was reduced from 30 to 40 times a day during the winter of the epidemic to 5 to 10 times. Bajorek noticed some students had a chance to experience it. But there was no less symptom than the enthusiasm for the test: “I really want to know?” Someone asked.
Eliminating the effects of COVID cases in college is difficult. But the national collection of patients in a youth group run by the academy was a natural experiment. Most states track children as under 18 or under 20 years of age.The two comparisons tell us something about what young people 18 to 19 are doing.
After removing the states that the institution had identified as having inconsistent data, there was a marked increase in the status following children under 20 during the “back to school” period, but state data tracking children had increased to a higher level. Country for people under the age of 18 since January as well in such a way that it does not fall the last time.
Another factor contributing to the counting of cases is time. In Oregon, cases of children typically peak a week later than in adults, the trend appears to reflect patterns of testing. (The child was tested after the adult’s test was positive) and transmission of the infection. Oregon’s most recent report on COVID in children since January found that 47% of pediatric cases came from transmission in the household, compared with 20% in adults.
With the case of children making adults lagging behind ‘It’s just a simple math that the share of pediatric cases increases as adult cases decrease. But this trend disappears about a week after the cases are downgraded. But it hasn’t happened: To date, that trend has persisted in Oregon, although the number of cases has stopped rapidly.
Information about seriously ill people from COVID in Oregon is not complete. Federal hospital admissions records in both Oregon and Washington contain errors in the daily count of children suspected of having COVID-19 for at least the past four months. On Oct. 19, Oregon has never had more than 15 children tested for suspected COVID in one day, every day.Since then, the state has reported more than 30, although this doesn’t make sense compared to the trend. In adults
Bill Hall, deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services acknowledged the problem and said the information quality team was investigating. But he did not respond to questions from The Lund Report as to how it happened or when it would be resolved.Politico recently reported that the agency’s inspector general was investigating data collection failures at the control center. And prevent disease of the United States It said the lack of competitive data in the event of being counted under the Trump administration was a starting point.
Some states are guaranteed to collect information directly from the hospital and pass it on to federal agencies – but not Oregon or Washington, the HHS document states that Oregon is between. “Pending” for certification in December.
Jonathan Modi, an Oregon Health Authority spokesman, declined to say what the state’s reporting status was or clarify where the misinformation came from.
A more comprehensive view of who is hospitalized should be possible in the United States.The HHS has asked hospitals to provide a 10-year COVID exposure count, but these data are absent. In the state file and not available in the facility level file where editing the number of patients is less than four.
Hall declined to answer questions about the matter.
Little is known about the different breeds.
Perhaps the biggest source of uncertainty is the role of variables. There are currently only a fraction of the confirmed COVID cases in Oregon.
The state of Oregon is grading approximately 100 to 200 cases per week, including wastewater samples, according to Brett Tyler, director of the OSU Center for Genome Research and Biological Computation. Different types (Eg UK, Brazil, South Africa) recently, ”he said by email.
Oregon Health & Science University scientists target 200 or 250 sequences per week. Researchers at the University of Oregon are analyzing 25, although its laboratory could be increased, a spokeswoman said.
Analysis is not enough to provide a clear picture of trends.
The New York Times estimates Oregon ranks less than 2% of cumulative cases to date.
In January, OHSU found that the variant B.1.1.7, a UK-born variant, was in Oregon. Since then, OHSU researchers have found a new variant in Oregon that has a feature appropriately called “eek” that the researchers believe could make the vaccine more resistant. Although the number of patients is decreasing But the number of cases for the B.1.1.7 variant is on the rise, with some expected to be the dominant form of COVID-19 in the United States this spring, a dashboard from the genome testing company. Helix found variable B.1.1.7 in approximately 30% of the samples.
This limited rating in the United States has reduced the nation’s ability to know what’s going on. Maureen Hotlin, a recently retired biomedical advisor and professor at OHSU, said what happened in Europe was often observed later in the United States, she said by email.
In Italy, doctors have specifically warned about the possibility of a widely spread variant of B.1.1.7 in children.
“We are flying blind in the US about different species,” Hoatlin said.
– Jacob Fenton, The Lund Report