Home / Health / Planning has to start now for a third COVID wave, experts warn of infection among children.

Planning has to start now for a third COVID wave, experts warn of infection among children.



Because vaccination is slower even though Covid-19 is back to life. But there is growing concern that a third wave of infection will enter India between October and December of this year, said renowned virologist Dr V Ravi, there is strong evidence to suggest that children were attacked. This could result in serious events unless the country and Karnataka are able to expand the healthcare infrastructure for children.

Q. You mentioned that children will bear the brunt of the third wave. But is there any certainty that the third wave will actually happen?

Europe is in the middle of the third wave of infection now, while the United States is in the fourth wave. Japan, Singapore and a few other Asian countries also experienced the third wave. The waves are inevitable in an outbreak. The quarantine depends on how quickly you vaccinated people. In a country our size, only a fraction of adults are vaccinated. As calculated, the vaccination process will take another three to six months to complete. At that stage, only 50% of the population would be vaccinated ̵

1; no children at all because the vaccine was not ready.

Read more: Forget third wave, Child COVID cases have risen in second wave

Q: What will we be seeing in the coming months?

The second wave will be managed by the end of June. There will be a quiet period of two to three months. Then the third wave will begin. All unvaccinated adults are at risk, but children will have many infections.

Q. But we’ve seen infections in children before. What are the new levels of infection that may arise?

We are talking about a lot of vulnerable children. In the first wave, about 4% of infections are children. In the second wave, this share has risen to between 10 and 20%. In addition, according to the Zero Child Survey, approximately 25% of children in India have been exposed to COVID-19 in the past 17 months. This keeps 60% of our children still susceptible to infection. In numbers, this is an estimated 18 million children in India, assuming 20% ​​are infected in the third wave, that is, 3.6 cr children. Most child cases are mild. But if we think that 1% of children have serious complications from disease, that is 3.6 hundred thousand children who have to be hospitalized.

Read more: Karnataka reports 38,603 new cases of COVID, 476 deaths

Q. Do we have enough pediatric intensive care facilities to handle these cases?

No, we don’t. This is why we have to start preparing now. We should also start a conversation about the opening of the school. Should the school reopen? Should distance learning be more important than regular learning? We also need to expand the infrastructure for our pediatric patients.

Q. How should governments view the proposal to increase the size of health resources? What is a long-term picture that should be seen?

We have to start thinking about what happened until the war with the invisible enemy. We allocate almost 40% of GDP to the military, but our allocation for health care is below 2%. Is it too much to request for better healthcare services? Medical resources and the number of trained personnel must increase. This century has been dubbed the “century of the virus”. In the last 20 years we have had 3 virus pandemic: MERS, Sars-CoV. -1 and is currently Sars-CoV-2.Of course, Sars-CoV-2 has received the cake and should notify a change. Frankly speaking, the now scaled medical infrastructure will be useful in the future. We will continue to see the spread of new viruses.

Read more: Four southern states and Maharashtra drive India’s COVID-19 epidemic

Q. I am disappointed that the vaccine does not protect against infection. How are you going to deal with this?

We all know people who have had the Covid-19 vaccine multiple times but are still infected. But when it comes to all vaccines, the information is very clear: it reduces the mortality and the severity of the infection. People expect too much from the vaccine under the feeling that it can stop the infection. Even in the polio vaccine, infections can occur. But can prevent disease The same is true for the measles vaccine as well.

Q. When the SARS-COV-2 virus mutates, do we need a new vaccination next year to prevent it?

It’s too early to let go of those worries. All vaccines that have been approved for use so far are effective against existing viruses. But if significant mutations do happen in the future, we may need to shoot boosters. This is why genome sequencing is so important – it helps us track mutations.

Q. Will we see a new variable of concern (VOC) that could arise in the coming months? A.

That is the million dollar question. It is very difficult to determine when to back up a new VOC.People have to understand that in a single infected person, millions of viral particles are emerging and only the fittest survive. These will spread and eventually lead to new mutations.

Q. On the point, is the new variant B.1.617 taking over quickly in Karnataka?

Precise. This variable is inherited from all the previous variables. One way to determine if a variable is actually more infectious is to look at how it spreads under what conditions and create a large number of infections through the event. Super-spreader or not, from January to March, the predominant variant in Karnataka is B.136, which dominates all other variables, but it does not have to be more infectious and is transmitted through highly contagious events. It was fast, such as marriage, political gatherings, religious events and other public places, but from April onward after the B.1.617 limit began to skyrocket and is now taken. This alone should tell us that it is more infectious than any other species.

Read more: Conversation during the expansion of the blocking in Karnataka has not yet been decided, CM says.

Ask, but is it more serious? What are clinical symptoms?

There is no information on clinical effects. There is no evidence to say that it is more violent.

Ask the problem of reinstallation if this is not often considered. Wouldn’t this increase the size of the vulnerable population?

In the first wave, the incidence of recurrent infections was around 1%, now between 5 and 10%. Infections are emerging and my bet is that people who have experienced recurrent infections have become mutants. If a new type of concern arises in the new few months, we will see more infections in the third wave.

Q: What are the limitations of natural antibody protection for people who have recently recovered from Covid-19?

It was initially thought that a person was protected for up to six months. But from what we see right now, it appears to be between three and six months. Six months is the best endogenous limit of natural antibodies. However, the amount of antigens we pump through a vaccine is much greater than that of a natural infection and results in prolonged immunity in humans.

Q. Is there any dissatisfaction that India is unable to expand the genome sequence? What are the challenges in sequencing the genome?

Sorting is a very laborious process that takes at least 10 days to complete. It can also be expensive. In India there are about 50 centers with respective facilities. But acute shortage of trained personnel In Karnataka, in consultation with Health Minister Dr K Sudhakar, agreed to establish four new genome centers in the four corners of Karnataka. They will be set up in a medical college which already has a research infrastructure.

Q. Why did the second wave explode like it had? Why are there so many deaths?

In the first wave, we focused on life rather than livelihood. That comes at the cost of making a living In the second wave, we focused on economy rather than life. We need to balance both life and sustenance, but how are the Kumbh Mela and elections responsible for economic recovery? Someone should enlighten me. I was very nervous when I saw the situation. We seem to be making the same mistakes we did before.

Q: Is continuous lockout useful?

The biggest effect of a jail release, which cannot be quantified, is the limitation of movement and contact between people. Moreover, people became afraid and began to take precautions. When there are no strict restrictions on which people will return to normalcy and the behavior that is appropriate for COVID is reduced.


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