The country’s declining covid-19 rate presents an unrealistic optimism for half of the country – half that are not vaccinated.
As more people get vaccinated, the vast majority of covid-19 cases occur in a narrower, unprotected population. Therefore, the rate of patients, mortality and hospitalization was adjusted for consideration. and found that in some places The virus continues to rage among those who have not received the ammunition.
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National figures showing a decline in the number of cases prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to loosen its recommendations on masks two weeks ago, and President Joe Biden advised people to remove masks and smile.
But the vaccine adjustments showed that rates among vulnerable and unvaccinated people were 73% higher than the published standard number with the adjustments. The national mortality rate is about the same as it was two months ago and has hardly decreased. Adjusted hospitalization rates are as high as they were three months ago. Lawsuit rates continue to decline after improvements.
Experts say unvaccinated people get the wrong message.
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“They thought it was safe to take off the mask, it wasn’t,” said Lynn Goldman, dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University. seems to be better But it is not necessarily better for those who are not vaccinated.”
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States with high rates among unvaccinated people
Adjusted rates in several states show that the epidemic is spreading rapidly among those who are not vaccinated. As in the winter, Maine, Colorado, Rhode Island and Washington have all had COVID-19 cases. increased sharply among those who were not vaccinated The adjusted rate is approximately twice the adjusted domestic rate. Wyoming adjusted rates West Virginia, Oregon, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are slightly lower than the state’s highest.
Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia However, in the region, declining vaccination rates in black communities have been concentrated there to extraordinary levels. before vaccination Black people are infected with COVID-19 About a third of the new cases are in Maryland and half are in the county. in the latest information Blacks have only half the new cases in Maryland and more than 80% in the county.
Tom Jeanne, deputy state epidemiologist and senior health adviser, said: The power surge in Oregon is partly a result of the COVID-19 virus. known as B.188.8.131.52, which spreads more than 50%.
It is characterized by outbreaks resulting from social gatherings with unvaccinated and masked people.
Jeanne said “They are at high risk of infection.”
Washington officials said they were caught in the midst of applauding the optimism that came with the vaccination. and warned anyone who had not been vaccinated that the danger was still there.
“Things are becoming safer for people who are vaccinated,” state health minister Umair A. Shah told The Post. They are still at risk. We have to make sure that the nuanced message reaches our community.”
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States with high mortality rates
In addition, many states have relatively high mortality rates.
The coronavirus vaccine is almost perfect in preventing death. Thus, the country’s declining death toll hides the death rate from COVID-19. in the unvaccinated group
Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, Florida and Illinois. They adjusted for mortality rates about 50% higher than the national rate.
Looking at death rates is not a good measure of the current spread of the epidemic. experts say because it is The “lagging indicator” – those who died were usually infected at least a month before that. This means that the deaths do not reflect the current community. spread of the disease, however, the adjusted mortality rate It shows that people who are not vaccinated are not safer.
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People are more likely to end up in the hospital.
Experts often point to the rate of hospitalizations as an important measure of the pandemic. Because they reflect people who are seriously ill and do not depend on how much the community is testing for the coronavirus. When current hospitalizations are spread only among the unvaccinated population County and Michigan will have rates twice as high as the adjusted national rates. Pennsylvania, Maryland, Florida and Rhode Island have rates about 50 percent higher than the adjusted national hospital rates.
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a story of two societies
Unvaccinated young adults in Maryland had the same infection rates as they increased during January. according to state analysis worse than that The risk of hospitalization among infected people more than doubled. This could be due to the prevalent strain of the coronavirus, said Ted Delbridge, executive director of the Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems.
Washington state has publicized the extreme threat of hospitalization for unvaccinated people. The report indicated that unvaccinated older adults were 11 times more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated older adults. For those aged 45-64 years, the likelihood of being hospitalized was 11 times more likely than vaccinated older adults. covid-19 nurse 18 times higher
Shah, Minister of Public Health of the State Worried that people will be left behind while others felt that the pandemic had passed.
“I hope this doesn’t become a matter of two societies,” he said. “Those who are vaccinated and protected can survive by taking their masks off.
“People who are not vaccinated are people who don’t wear masks or wash their hands. These people tend to be social and surrounded by like-minded people. You will continue to spread in those clusters.”
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Regarding this report, The Post has adjusted the rate of COVID-19 infection. for patients, mortality, and hospitalization over time. By combining information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about patients. hospitalization and vaccination. The Post uses a daily average of the number of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations over 7 days. For vaccinations, The Post uses the number of people who have been vaccinated at least once each day.
For events such as covid-19, the rate is usually calculated by dividing the number of cases by the number of people in the population. For example, if there are 12 cases in a population of 100, the rate would be 12 people per 100 people. Except for most people who have been vaccinated, so if 20 people are vaccinated That means 12 out of the 80 remaining unvaccinated, adjusting the rate of 15 per 100.
Vaccination is not perfect at preventing infection, however, The Post does not remove the total population of people who have been vaccinated. Data shows that vaccines are about 90% effective in preventing cases. among those who have been vaccinated Cases among vaccinated persons are called development cases. As a conservation measure, The Post estimates that up to 15% of the vaccinated population can still be infected.
Therefore, in the above example Instead of removing all 20 vaccinated people, The Post removed 17, leaving 12 out of 83 for an adjusted rate of 14.5 per 100.
The Post calculates adjusted rates of cases, deaths and hospitalizations for each country and state since vaccination began in December. State-issued Covid-19 cases and mortality rates are sometimes subject to a delay. Sometimes states also review old cases and issue updated numbers that reflect the backlog of older cases rather than the increase that day.
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