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President Biden wants to raise taxes on wealthy companies and investors. His top market regulator has pledged to take a more stringent approach. And the Democrats who control Congress are proud enemies of the mogul and money managers.
How did the stock market react?
With rallies sending the S&P 500 up 11% in Biden’s first 100 days, best performance by model indexes since Franklin Delano Roosevelt first started in 1933, according to NPR analysis of S&P data.
“The stock market is on fire,” said Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments. “It has astounding veteran observers, and there might be a way to go.”
So how did the assembly explain it?
For many experts, it worsens the U.S. economy.
President Biden’s administration has overseen the rapid rollout of vaccines and through a $ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan, which has poured more money into households and businesses, even as Congress has passed trillions of dollars of stimulus.
Both developments saw Americans open their wallets once more and businesses opened again to power the U.S. economy.
Thursday’s data showed the economy grew at a 6.4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, while companies such as Apple and Tesla recently announced explosive results.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping interest rates low for the foreseeable future, and the central bank continues to buy billions of dollars in bonds, a powerful signal to investors.
“The last hundred days are as good as we’ve seen it,” said Ryan Detrick, head of marketing strategy at LPL Financial. But the truth is, it comes down to the economy and we’ve opened up, and that’s a big reason why stocks are doing so well. ”
All of this helped make up for some of the president’s proposals that were less popular on Wall Street.
In his speech at a joint meeting on Wednesday, Biden revealed a clear vision of the big government to spend trillions of dollars in spending. He intends to pay by raising taxes on companies and millionaires, including the rate at which wealthy investors pay their profits on the sale of assets like stocks and close loopholes.
“It is time for organizations in America and the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans to pay their fair share,” Biden said. “What I am offering is fair and financially responsible.”
Meanwhile, the new Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Gary Gensler is a veteran regulator who previously headed the Commodities Futures Trading Commission under President Obama and is known for stricter guidelines. On wall street
The main committees that oversee the financial world are now overseen by lawmakers such as Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio and Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., Widely viewed as being less friendly with Wall Street at the time. At other progressive lawmakers such as Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. And Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass is expected to have a prominent voice.
But the economy, which many experts see as directed for best annual growth since 1984, has a way of coloring things, according to experts. Ultimately, investors acknowledge that proposals – to change the tax code or raise taxes – still go through Congress where Democrats hold a majority.
“unless [Biden] This schedule has been set for this market, ”said Jonathan Golub, chief US stock strategist and head of Credit Suisse’s quantitative research.
“I don’t see anything changing this in the medium term,” he added.
But there is a more serious risk for Wall Street.
From the start of the epidemic, investors and economists say the virus will determine how quickly the economy will recover. And despite the increased vaccination rates But there are still concerns about different species.
There is also a chance that the rate of inflation will rise. Producers are hit hard by supply constraints, leading companies such as Proctor & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark will raise prices.
Meanwhile, the Fed has remained adamant that higher expected inflation will be manageable. But concerns remain that central banks may have to raise interest rates to counter the impact of rising prices.
And at the end, the market is always cyclical. Sometimes it goes up and sometimes down, according to Golub at Credit Suisse., What ended up with a stop to set up a record in the market could be as easy as time.
“You know, the trees didn’t grow into the sky,” he said. “After the second and third quarters of this year, things slowly slowed down and returned to normal.”