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When will the outbreak end?



We are also unsure whether the COVID-19 vaccine in use will provide long-lasting immunity, as with smallpox and polio vaccines. If not, the person may not be protected because of the reduced immunity of the vaccine. In addition, in an attempt to eradicate the vaccine must be available to everyone, this is not currently possible, although production is expected to increase during the remainder of 2021 and 2022, cases of asymptomatic infection will hinder. The same elimination campaign. For polio, the spread can be detected. Having a very different set of symptoms, as with smallpox rashes, it is easier to identify cases and control the spread of smallpox during eradication campaigns.

Therefore, the removal is gone and the removal will be extremely difficult, at least at this time. That gives us a third possibility, that is, an endemic virus. This means there will be low populations in the foreseeable future. Dr Najera pointed out that SARS-COV-2 will be similar to the four endemic human coronaviruses that commonly cause colds. : “Viruses that are annoying to some and strong enough to kill others.”

; However, with a larger population being vaccinated, we see fewer infections and deaths than we have experienced during this time. It has been 16 months and although an outbreak occurred But it is less likely to be hospitalized.

This endemic conclusion is consistent with the results of the 2009 H1N1 swine fever outbreak on August 10, 2010, about 16 months after the first outbreak. “As we enter the post-pandemic, this does not mean that the H1N1 virus will go out. Based on experience in the past, we expect the H1N1 virus to behave as a seasonal influenza virus and continue to spread. For many years to come. ”This happened. More than a decade later, descendants of the 2009 pandemic virus continue to spread, just as the influenza virus pandemic after 2009. The influenza pandemic at some point, the WHO, will issue a similar declaration for COVID-19 when the levels of new cases are low enough in most countries around the world. But this will not be the end of the virus.

The next phase of the epidemic life

Monica Green, Ph.D., global medical and health historian and independent scholar, points out that the “end” of the epidemic is in the eye of the beholder; Outbreaks lasted longer than the most severe and devastating outbreaks. “Much of the history of medicine has been focused on the Plague: “The visible part of the epidemic in the human community,” she said, “and most human communities tend to see things only as tiny scales, so the ‘plague’ ends when the disease is no longer visible. go For us, “ However, “we” has been defined from city to state, nationally. Dr. Green’s work studies the spread of Yersinia pestisThe plague-causing bacteria, which represent Black Death, have been shown that past outbreaks lasted hundreds or more years. But that doesn’t mean these outbreaks are the most severe of all time. But there are different stages involved.

So even if we don’t seem to get out of the forest But we should be heading towards the beginning of the post-outbreak phase in the United States. New strains may still appear, and the spread is expected from time to time. Especially in areas with low vaccination rates

It is important to note that a reduction in the case in the United States will not automatically mean the end of an outbreak, according to the definition of a global one. Depending on the speed of global vaccination, the epidemic could persist for another year or so in low-income countries. Dr. Kenny hopes the vaccine will “break the wave of the future” in the United States, but there is one. Real fear for many low and middle income countries “The waves will continue to come unless we do better and faster. Cooperation is now being proposed to increase the distribution and production of vaccines in these countries, and further vaccine testing is still available in countries where infection is still found. High levels of COVID-19


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